By Ollus Ndomu
African Union (AU) troops are set to pull out of Somalia after more than a decade of battling insurgency and fostering a fragile peace. This withdrawal raises critical questions about the future stability of the war-torn country. To explore the potential consequences, Josey Mahachi spoke with Mohamed Sheikh Nor, a Somali journalist, and Samira Gaid, a security analyst based in Kenya.
Also, Henry-Pacifique Mayala from the Kivu Security Barometer provided insights on the repercussions of the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Mohamed Sheikh Nor emphasized the pivotal role AU forces have played in countering al-Shabaab militants and supporting the Somali government. “The departure of these troops creates a security vacuum that Somali forces may struggle to fill,” he stated, highlighting concerns about a resurgence of militant activity and further destabilization.
Samira Gaid echoed these sentiments, noting that the withdrawal could undermine recent gains in security and governance. “Somalia’s institutions are still fragile. The AU’s exit might embolden insurgents and complicate efforts to establish long-term stability,” Gaid remarked. She stressed the importance of continued international support to bolster Somali security forces and prevent a relapse into chaos.
Drawing parallels with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Henry-Pacifique Mayala discussed the impact of the UN peacekeepers’ withdrawal. “In both Somalia and the DRC, the departure of international forces leaves behind significant challenges. It is crucial for the international community to ensure these nations receive the necessary support to handle their security independently,” Mayala asserted.
He emphasized the need for comprehensive strategies to address the underlying causes of conflict and build resilient institutions.
As the AU troops prepare to leave Somalia, the country faces an uncertain future. The international community’s role in providing continued support and resources will be critical in ensuring that Somalia does not revert to a state of heightened conflict and instability.
